Does the BJP Require a Caste Census to Win Bihar Elections?

Sanish Kumar
1 day ago
8 min read

Introduction

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) announced on the 30th of April, 2025, that caste enumeration will be carried out alongside the upcoming census, which technically means that castes other than the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the Scheduled Tribes (STs) will also be counted in the upcoming population census, which was originally scheduled for 2021. The issue of caste census has always been of great significance for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in India. OBC is a grouping specifically referring to castes and communities from both Hindus and non-Hindus considered socially and educationally backwards, but do not fall under the SC or ST category. It is not solely a class-based grouping, while economic factors are considered (for instance, the ‘creamy layer’ concept excludes those with higher incomes), the primary focus is on social and educational backwardness for identification. ‘Caste’ and ‘class’ are two highly intertwined concepts in India. Caste often decides class, as it traditionally prescribes one’s occupation. The caste-class intertwinement is most evident in the demands of OBC reservation, the recommendation of the Mandal Commission was based on the argument that castes that are socially and educationally backwards are also economically backwards. The Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) are a sub-group within the OBC, who are the most backwards among the OBCs. This interlinkage between the caste and class has a profound electoral impact in Bihar’s politics.

Because of this decision of the cabinet, the caste census, which was among the primary pitches of the opposition in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is also in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) bag now. Relying on the issue of caste census and social justice, the Indian National Congress (INC) made substantial gains in the recent Lok Sabha elections, nearly doubling its seat count from 2019. It emerged as a powerful rallying point for the opposition, illustrating significant support from the backward caste electorate. While we talk about INC, a new claimant of this issue, persistent efforts and demands for a nationwide caste census by regional parties should not be overlooked. Most of the prominent regional parties in India have emerged in the wake of Mandalisation and have sustained themselves on the plank of social justice. Instead, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has consistently shied away from the question of caste census and has remained stuck to its traditional rhetoric of Hindutva and nationalism. Prime Minister Modi had also described it as a ‘divisive’ plank of the opposition to target the Hindu unity. The sudden change of heart by the BJP on the caste census looks to be driven by electoral calculations, which will hold profound implications for the time to come.

Historical Background

The practice of caste enumeration was conducted alongside the census during the colonial era. From 1881 to 1931, all census exercises collected caste data. The 1941 census also included caste data, but it was not disclosed. In 1951, the year in which the first census after independence was conducted, the Indian government under the premiership of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru decided to discontinue caste enumeration except for the SCs and STs. This decision was based on the belief that institutionalising caste through a caste census would only perpetuate divisions and promote disunity among the people. A decade later, in 1961, the central government allowed states to conduct a caste survey and make a list of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) accordingly, which became one of the factors in steering the demand for backward-class reservation.

The Mandal Commission Report, which sought 27 per cent reservation for socially and economically backward classes in educational and employment opportunities, was based on the data of the 1931 census, which recorded the OBC population to be 52 per cent. The lack of comprehensive government data on the economic and social status of various castes made it challenging to accurately estimate proportional reservations for the OBCs, fuelling the demand for a caste census. The first post-independence nationwide caste data was collected in the Socio-Economic Caste Survey (SECC) under the Manmohan Singh government, conducted alongside the 2011 census. This decision, too, was the result of pressure from key regional allies in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). However, the caste data collected in the SECC was never published despite frequent demands from key regional parties.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, has consistently avoided taking a firm stand on the issue, prioritising Hindutva and nationalist agendas in its campaign. This balanced and ambiguous approach of the BJP to the issue is characterised by the historical context of its emergence, which made the upper caste its core voters.

Deviation from the Traditional Support Base?

The resurgence of the BJP was driven by its Kamandal base in the 1990s, a period of significant dissatisfaction among upper-caste and business-class individuals regarding the implementation of the Mandal Commission report. This gave it the label of a Baniya-Brahmin party. However, today, it is far from being a Baniya-Brahmin party, with the most OBC ministers ever in the cabinet led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is an OBC as well. In spite of this, the BJP has avoided using it as an electoral tool and relies primarily on a Hindutva nationalist agenda. The BJP performed strikingly well in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections with Hindutva and nationalist rhetoric, but the 2024 Lok Sabha elections gave a significant setback to the party, particularly in the OBC-majority states. Learning from this setback, the BJP seems to have sensed the grounds well for the issue of social justice and fair representation among backward classes, and its traction in the OBC-majority states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which play a crucial role in national politics.

According to the National Commission for Backward Castes, Bihar has 136 OBCs, the most in the country. The caste survey conducted by the Janata Dal-United (JDU) and RJD government in 2023 revealed that the OBCs constitute around 65 per cent of the population of the state, with 36 per cent of them being the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), a sub-category of OBCs in the state. Thus, the Government’s nod to conduct a caste census seems to be a strategic move to reclaim the ground from key regional parties, which have historically been dependent on the OBC community as their support base.

The Ally Factor in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

The circumstances have changed since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This time, the BJP is leading an NDA government, and it is dependent on its regional allies like the JDU and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). While the BJP is a major player in Bihar, it lacks the strength to form a government independently, requiring the JDU to be in its alliance to remain in power. In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP attempted to undermine the JDU in the alliance by using the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) against it. This time, JDU is aware and seeks to consolidate its support by pursuing its core political agenda of social justice. The JDU, which holds the tag of being a secular party in the state, has already borne the cost of supporting the Waqf Amendment Bill, which sidelined a significant share of its Muslim vote base.

JDU is a product of Mandalisation and, by and large, functions as a backward-caste party, having been one of the primary advocates for the caste census. The JDU, in alliance with RJD, has already conducted a caste survey in the state and has approved an increase in total reservation to 75 per cent, exceeding the 50 per cent cap set by the Supreme Court, a move that was later struck down by the Patna High Court. The JDU certainly does not want to fall behind in the demand for a nationwide caste census. Since this has been a major pillar of RJD’s campaign, persuading the BJP to agree to it enables Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to be on the frontline of the campaign, pushing the RJD and the Congress on the backfoot.

Understanding the Voting Pattern in Bihar

How does Bihar vote? The electoral history of Bihar affirms that caste polarisation is a more effective electoral tool than religious polarisation, so this question can only be addressed after empirically understanding the caste and class dynamics in the state. To have a general understanding of the caste-party coordination in the state, we can rely on the Bihar Caste Survey 2023 (Figure 1), according to which, the total OBC population (EBC and OBC) stands at 63.14 per cent, and that of SCs at 19.65 per cent, while general or unreserved castes account for 15.52 per cent.

When we further anatomise this data, we find that among the OBCs, the Yadavas constitute 14.26 per cent (Figure 2), and the Paswans make up 5.31 per cent (Figure 2) among the SCs, making them a linchpin in deciding the mandate in the state. The Yadavas have traditionally been the core voters of the Lalu Yadav-led RJD, while the Paswans are the base of LJP, a reliable BJP ally. The BJP receives most of the general caste votes, and the JDU mainly targets the non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs, such as the Kurmis and the Kushwahas. Eventually, no single party has enough support to form a government on its own, making the JDU a pivotal ally for both the BJP and the RJD. This is why analysts term JDU voters as the “swing factor” in the state, playing a decisive role in government formation.

Implications for the BJP

How will the decision to hold a nationwide caste census impact the BJP in the state? To assess its implications, we must understand BJP’s electoral requirements in the state. Around the mid-1990s, backward castes emerged as dominant players in state politics, with two major parties, the JDU and the RJD, championing their interests. This fuelled intense caste polarisation in the state, eventually concentrating upper caste votes in the BJP’s hands. Since then, upper castes have been BJP’s loyal voters in the state. It also gains a significant share of non-general caste votes, but only due to its alliance with the likes of the JDU, LJP, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM).

There is a widespread aversion to the caste census among upper castes, as it may ultimately lead to the extension of reservations in public education and employment. In contrast, there is a strong demand for this issue among backward castes. Some analysts argue that the decision to conduct a nationwide caste census might alienate upper castes, who are the BJP’s primary voters. However, the caste-to-party voting pattern indicates that it will have minimal impact on the core BJP voters, as the BJP remains the sole representative for upper castes in the state. Nonetheless, it is also clear that BJP will gain very little from this issue, with the JDU likely being the main beneficiary.

Conclusion

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA, comprising the JDU, BJP, HAM, and VIP, secured 125 seats, three more than the required majority, without the LJP. In that election, the LJP contested every seat where JDU fielded a candidate, leading to the spoiler effect, which significantly impacted JDU’s performance, and the JDU won only 43 seats out of the 115 contested. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV), the main faction of the LJP after the party's split in 2021, performed spectacularly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections under Chirag Paswan, winning all five seats it contested. Now that it is formally allied with the NDA and a seat-sharing arrangement can be worked out, this status quo may also pave the way for the NDA's victory in the upcoming elections. However, this time, Nitish Kumar needs the issue of caste census to strengthen his campaign and avoid any vulnerability regarding his position as the Chief Minister.

Thus, we can conclude that the decision to hold a caste census is not a direct requirement of the BJP, but the JDU requires it to up its tally, and because the JDU is crucial for the NDA in the state, it is indirectly a requirement of the BJP too.

Appendix

Figure 1: